Vladimir Putin’s Invisible General Insecure Despite Surviving Revolt

Vladimir Putin is due to convene his Security Council for a weekly meeting in the next few days as the Kremlin claims its invasion of Ukraine will go ahead as planned. The effort will depend on what the Russian president decides to do about the pair of generals who were the targets of the failed coup.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s assault force commander Valery Gerasimov have not been seen in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an extraordinary coup to oust them.

Although Prigozhin and his Wagner paramilitaries eventually halted their march on Moscow, the chieftains agreed to leave Russia, leaving both men increasingly vulnerable in their wake.

Analysts say the failed rebellion has given Putin a clear choice – either sack the generals or let him remain in command of his faltering offensive, either of which will deal more damage to both the war and his regime. There is a significant risk of exposure.

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are so bad at their jobs that it is dangerous for Putin to leave them,” said Dara Massicot, a senior political scientist at the US-based RAND Corporation. “But loyalty and stability are number one for Putin. I do not understand how he will set these conditions like this.

For several months, Prigozhin has targeted Gerasimov and Shoigu, blaming them for Russia’s military shortcomings in Ukraine and portraying them as inept leaders who sat comfortably in Moscow as Russian soldiers marched on the battlefield. I had died.

By Sunday, some Russian military analysts were speculating that Shoigu and Gerasimov could be two additional casualties of the failed coup, after Prigozhin and his fighters advanced halfway across the Ukrainian border to Moscow, capturing a military base and killing several others. Army helicopters shot down – all in a matter of hours.

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are now clearly lame ducks and I think they will be removed,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think-tank. He did not rule out the possibility that the departure of the two men could be part of a brokered deal that led Prigozhin to stand down his men. The Kremlin has denied this.

Russia’s reputation has been so damaged that even pro-war commentators on state television and social media have called the entire war into question while acknowledging the coup.

“This is a serious blow to the authority of the country and the authority of the president,” Karen Shakhnazarov, a Kremlin-linked film director, said in a popular online livestream show. “It felt like everything was shaky here, and it didn’t.”

Should Shoigu and Gerasimov eventually be ousted, it would mark a dramatic downfall for both men – one a player in a slippery Russian political hierarchy, the other a longtime military official who has been critical of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. became the commander of

The first – Shoigu – is the longest-serving minister in Russia, having previously taken over the defense portfolio in 2012 after serving for decades as Russia’s emergency services minister. That job gave him a public profile as a rival to Putin, with televised appearances from the ground or helicopter at every man-made or natural disaster in Russia.

Over the years, he accompanied Putin on holiday trips to Siberia, the two men posing together foraging for mushrooms; wearing sheepskin coats when dining outside in snowy settings; and spear fishing shirtless in the summer.

In recent years, there has been increased scrutiny of the fame and business dealings of members of Shoigu’s family, who have become the target of ire from hardliners for their privileged lifestyle and seeming estranged from the war’s consequences.

Meanwhile, Gerasimov fell out with commanders who disagreed with his brutal tactics in Ukraine, which generals and militia members alike thought sacrificed too many lives for little gain.

Prigozhin’s criticism of Shoigu and Gerasimov, and of the Russian military more broadly, has been ongoing for months. In a video message earlier this spring, Prigozhin satirized against the backdrop of a Russian cemetery. “You sit in your expensive nightclubs and your kids enjoy life making YouTube videos. , , These guys are dying to make you fat in their wood-paneled offices.

The reception of Wagner’s men in Rostov reflects the popularity of Prigozhin’s attacks against the military leadership. On Saturday morning, when Prigozhin demanded a face-to-face meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov, Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of Russian military intelligence, laughed and said: “Take them!”

When Wagner left the southern city that was the coup’s launch pad, crowds waved, cheered and took selfies with Prigozhin – but heckled the security forces who came to replace him.

It appears that the main reason for Prigozhin’s rebellion was Putin’s endorsement of Shoigu’s move to get Wagner to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry earlier this month.

“The problem with Wagner was growing, after (the announcement) it would reach a crisis point. Putin was probably warned and did nothing,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the US defense think tank CNA, wrote on Twitter.

Although Putin publicly supported Shoigu’s efforts, Prigozhin vehemently refused—knowing that such an arrangement would damage his reputation as a powerful warlord who answered only to Putin. According to a person who has known him since the 1990s.

“He understands very well that if he turns into a zero, Shoigu will have dealt with him at some point. So he went out and decided to show Putin that he was the only real person out there and should be left alone with his money,” the person said. “He got a little wrong, and everything went in vain, as it usually happens (in Russia).”

Massicot said Putin’s biggest mistake was to extend his support to Shoigu without finding an acceptable way for Prigozhin to save face.

“When he threw his support behind the Defense Ministry, it basically hit Prigozhin in the back,” she said. “A capable politician would have offered Prigozhin something to incentivize, or buy him off. Obviously, this was not done.”

With Prigozhin now in exile, Shoigu’s position could be further strengthened — because Putin will see no reason to sack his loyalist, according to a person who knows the warlord.

“Shoigu is the only winner,” said the person. “He will be the Defense Minister forever.”

Vladimir Putin is due to convene his Security Council for a weekly meeting in the next few days as the Kremlin claims its invasion of Ukraine will go ahead as planned. The effort will depend on what the Russian president decides to do about the pair of generals who were the targets of the failed coup.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s assault force commander Valery Gerasimov have not been seen in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an extraordinary coup to oust them.

Although Prigozhin and his Wagner paramilitaries eventually halted their march on Moscow, the chieftains agreed to leave Russia, leaving both men increasingly vulnerable in their wake.

Analysts say the failed rebellion has given Putin a clear choice – either sack the generals or let him remain in command of his faltering offensive, either of which will deal more damage to both the war and his regime. There is a significant risk of exposure.

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are so bad at their jobs that it is dangerous for Putin to leave them,” said Dara Massicot, a senior political scientist at the US-based RAND Corporation. “But loyalty and stability are number one for Putin. I do not understand how he will set these conditions like this.

For several months, Prigozhin has targeted Gerasimov and Shoigu, blaming them for Russia’s military shortcomings in Ukraine and portraying them as inept leaders who sat comfortably in Moscow as Russian soldiers marched on the battlefield. I had died.

By Sunday, some Russian military analysts were speculating that Shoigu and Gerasimov could be two additional casualties of the failed coup, after Prigozhin and his fighters advanced halfway across the Ukrainian border to Moscow, capturing a military base and killing several others. Army helicopters shot down – all in a matter of hours.

“Shoigu and Gerasimov are now clearly lame ducks and I think they will be removed,” said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think-tank. He did not rule out the possibility that the departure of the two men could be part of a brokered deal that led Prigozhin to stand down his men. The Kremlin has denied this.

Russia’s reputation has been so damaged that even pro-war commentators on state television and social media have called the entire war into question while acknowledging the coup.

“This is a serious blow to the authority of the country and the authority of the president,” Karen Shakhnazarov, a Kremlin-linked film director, said in a popular online livestream show. “It felt like everything was shaky here, and it didn’t.”

Should Shoigu and Gerasimov eventually be ousted, it would mark a dramatic downfall for both men – one a player in a slippery Russian political hierarchy, the other a longtime military official who has been critical of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. became the commander of

The first – Shoigu – is the longest-serving minister in Russia, having previously taken over the defense portfolio in 2012 after serving for decades as Russia’s emergency services minister. That job gave him a public profile as a rival to Putin, with televised appearances from the ground or helicopter at every man-made or natural disaster in Russia.

Over the years, he accompanied Putin on holiday trips to Siberia, the two men posing together foraging for mushrooms; wearing sheepskin coats when dining outside in snowy settings; and spear fishing shirtless in the summer.

In recent years, there has been increased scrutiny of the fame and business dealings of members of Shoigu’s family, who have become the target of ire from hardliners for their privileged lifestyle and seeming estranged from the war’s consequences.

Meanwhile, Gerasimov fell out with commanders who disagreed with his brutal tactics in Ukraine, which generals and militia members alike thought sacrificed too many lives for little gain.

Prigozhin’s criticism of Shoigu and Gerasimov, and of the Russian military more broadly, has been ongoing for months. In a video message earlier this spring, Prigozhin satirized against the backdrop of a Russian cemetery. “You sit in your expensive nightclubs and your kids enjoy life making YouTube videos. , , These guys are dying to make you fat in their wood-paneled offices.

The reception of Wagner’s men in Rostov reflects the popularity of Prigozhin’s attacks against the military leadership. On Saturday morning, when Prigozhin demanded a face-to-face meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov, Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of Russian military intelligence, laughed and said: “Take them!”

When Wagner left the southern city that was the coup’s launch pad, crowds waved, cheered and took selfies with Prigozhin – but heckled the security forces who came to replace him.

It appears that the main reason for Prigozhin’s rebellion was Putin’s endorsement of Shoigu’s move to get Wagner to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry earlier this month.

“The problem with Wagner was growing, after (the announcement) it would reach a crisis point. Putin was probably warned and did nothing,” Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the US defense think tank CNA, wrote on Twitter.

Although Putin publicly supported Shoigu’s efforts, Prigozhin vehemently refused—knowing that such an arrangement would damage his reputation as a powerful warlord who answered only to Putin. According to a person who has known him since the 1990s.

“He understands very well that if he turns into a zero, Shoigu will have dealt with him at some point. So he went out and decided to show Putin that he was the only real person out there and should be left alone with his money,” the person said. “He got a little wrong, and everything went in vain, as it usually happens (in Russia).”

Massicot said Putin’s biggest mistake was to extend his support to Shoigu without finding an acceptable way for Prigozhin to save face.

“When he threw his support behind the Defense Ministry, it basically hit Prigozhin in the back,” she said. “A capable politician would have offered Prigozhin something to incentivize, or buy him off. Obviously, this was not done.”

With Prigozhin now in exile, Shoigu’s position could be further strengthened — because Putin will see no reason to sack his loyalist, according to a person who knows the warlord.

“Shoigu is the only winner,” said the person. “He will be the Defense Minister forever.”