Venezuela’s Maduro defies US pressure to return to regional spotlight

Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela grow bleak as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro gains more and more regional recognition, prompting the US and EU in efforts to pressure him into holding free and fair elections next year are failing.

After years of isolation following his controversial 2018 election victory, an increasingly triumphant Maduro hogged the diplomatic spotlight last week at a South American summit hosted by Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Maduro told his fellow presidents that his country had survived an attack by the US under former President Donald Trump that was “more brutal than (Russia’s) attack on Ukraine”. He cited assassination attempts, threats of military invasion and international isolation, as well as “900 sanctions and measures against the entire economy”.

“And here we are, protesting and looking to the future,” he said after boasting that his Revolutionary Socialist Party had won 27 out of 29 presidential, parliamentary and local elections during his 24-year rule. It was

Standing next to Maduro, Lula offered him a non-critical endorsement and spoke of “constructing a narrative against Venezuela”, adding: “I think Venezuela should show its story so that it is actually I can change people’s minds.”

Thomas Shannon, a former top US State Department diplomat who is now a consultant with the Washington law firm Arnold & Porter, said that Lula “really undermined the approach that the Biden administration has — that it has had some success.” could – by assuring Maduro that he does not ‘owe anything to the opposition’.

Maduro is facing investigation by the International Criminal Court for possible crimes against humanity and has a $15 million US bounty On his head on charges of narco-terrorism. However, he also had bilateral meetings with leftist leaders from Argentina and Colombia as well as with Lula in Brasilia.

None of them publicly criticized the political repression and economic mismanagement in Venezuela that fueled the exodus of seven million refugees. Only Chile’s leftist leader and Uruguay’s conservative president raised concerns about rights abuses in Venezuela, comments Maduro quickly shrugged off.

A Brazilian diplomat said that Lula had raised the issue of Venezuelan elections privately with Maduro. “The important thing was to bring these presidents together,” he said. “For years there was a situation with us that some refused to be in the same room with other people.”

The Biden administration last year turned away from a failed Trump-era strategy of “maximum pressure” sanctions aimed at forcing regime change in Caracas. In November it allowed Chevron to resume limited oil exports from the country, a move intended to prompt Maduro to resume talks with the opposition.

The US concession followed an initial agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition in Norway-brokered talks that $3 billion of frozen Venezuelan funds held in the West should be spent on humanitarian projects.

But six months later, the funds have yet to be unblocked, talks have not resumed and time is running out for talks that could improve the chances of a free presidential election next year.

No date has been set for the vote, but the opposition is in doubt Maduro gave the signal He can bring forward the ballot paper.

“Maduro feels no pressure to sit down with the opposition and negotiate terms for elections,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the CSIS think-tank in Washington. “Even less so, now that the field is coalescing around it.”

Maduro survived years of Western instability by dodging sanctions by turning to China, Russia, Turkey and Iran, and by sending cargoes of oil to East Asia through intermediaries. US officials say his government boosted state coffers by encouraging illegal gold mining in the Amazon rainforest and taking cuts from drug traffickers.

Venezuela has adopted a free-market approach in recent years, leading to increased use of the US dollar and the elimination of some state controls. The IMF said Venezuela’s gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year and will grow another 5 percent this year, albeit from a much lower base.

The EU had hoped to take advantage of Maduro’s desire for greater legitimacy by jeopardizing the possibility of an EU observation mission for next year’s election. But diplomats in Brussels acknowledge they will go no further if Caracas fails to make minimal political concessions.

“The window of opportunity may soon be closing,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It’s a question of months.”

The difficulty for the US and EU is that, after the failure of Trump-era sanctions and Western efforts to recognize an alternative government led by former congressman Juan Guaidó, they have few options left.

“Engaging with Maduro is important because he has no intention of going anywhere,” said Tamara Tarasiuk Broner, a Venezuela expert at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. “But this engagement cannot be free, it needs to generate incentives for the Venezuelan authorities to move forward in a democratic process.”

“The last thing Venezuelans need is to raise Maduro’s profile,” he said. “Maduro has his own narrative about what is happening and Lula. , , echoed that narrative further.

Additional reporting by Michael Pooler in Sao Paulo

Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela grow bleak as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro gains more and more regional recognition, prompting the US and EU in efforts to pressure him into holding free and fair elections next year are failing.

After years of isolation following his controversial 2018 election victory, an increasingly triumphant Maduro hogged the diplomatic spotlight last week at a South American summit hosted by Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Maduro told his fellow presidents that his country had survived an attack by the US under former President Donald Trump that was “more brutal than (Russia’s) attack on Ukraine”. He cited assassination attempts, threats of military invasion and international isolation, as well as “900 sanctions and measures against the entire economy”.

“And here we are, protesting and looking to the future,” he said after boasting that his Revolutionary Socialist Party had won 27 out of 29 presidential, parliamentary and local elections during his 24-year rule. It was

Standing next to Maduro, Lula offered him a non-critical endorsement and spoke of “constructing a narrative against Venezuela”, adding: “I think Venezuela should show its story so that it is actually I can change people’s minds.”

Thomas Shannon, a former top US State Department diplomat who is now a consultant with the Washington law firm Arnold & Porter, said that Lula “really undermined the approach that the Biden administration has — that it has had some success.” could – by assuring Maduro that he does not ‘owe anything to the opposition’.

Maduro is facing investigation by the International Criminal Court for possible crimes against humanity and has a $15 million US bounty On his head on charges of narco-terrorism. However, he also had bilateral meetings with leftist leaders from Argentina and Colombia as well as with Lula in Brasilia.

None of them publicly criticized the political repression and economic mismanagement in Venezuela that fueled the exodus of seven million refugees. Only Chile’s leftist leader and Uruguay’s conservative president raised concerns about rights abuses in Venezuela, comments Maduro quickly shrugged off.

A Brazilian diplomat said that Lula had raised the issue of Venezuelan elections privately with Maduro. “The important thing was to bring these presidents together,” he said. “For years there was a situation with us that some refused to be in the same room with other people.”

The Biden administration last year turned away from a failed Trump-era strategy of “maximum pressure” sanctions aimed at forcing regime change in Caracas. In November it allowed Chevron to resume limited oil exports from the country, a move intended to prompt Maduro to resume talks with the opposition.

The US concession followed an initial agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition in Norway-brokered talks that $3 billion of frozen Venezuelan funds held in the West should be spent on humanitarian projects.

But six months later, the funds have yet to be unblocked, talks have not resumed and time is running out for talks that could improve the chances of a free presidential election next year.

No date has been set for the vote, but the opposition is in doubt Maduro gave the signal He can bring forward the ballot paper.

“Maduro feels no pressure to sit down with the opposition and negotiate terms for elections,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the CSIS think-tank in Washington. “Even less so, now that the field is coalescing around it.”

Maduro survived years of Western instability by dodging sanctions by turning to China, Russia, Turkey and Iran, and by sending cargoes of oil to East Asia through intermediaries. US officials say his government boosted state coffers by encouraging illegal gold mining in the Amazon rainforest and taking cuts from drug traffickers.

Venezuela has adopted a free-market approach in recent years, leading to increased use of the US dollar and the elimination of some state controls. The IMF said Venezuela’s gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year and will grow another 5 percent this year, albeit from a much lower base.

The EU had hoped to take advantage of Maduro’s desire for greater legitimacy by jeopardizing the possibility of an EU observation mission for next year’s election. But diplomats in Brussels acknowledge they will go no further if Caracas fails to make minimal political concessions.

“The window of opportunity may soon be closing,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It’s a question of months.”

The difficulty for the US and EU is that, after the failure of Trump-era sanctions and Western efforts to recognize an alternative government led by former congressman Juan Guaidó, they have few options left.

“Engaging with Maduro is important because he has no intention of going anywhere,” said Tamara Tarasiuk Broner, a Venezuela expert at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. “But this engagement cannot be free, it needs to generate incentives for the Venezuelan authorities to move forward in a democratic process.”

“The last thing Venezuelans need is to raise Maduro’s profile,” he said. “Maduro has his own narrative about what is happening and Lula. , , echoed that narrative further.

Additional reporting by Michael Pooler in Sao Paulo