Military briefing: Ukraine’s daring ‘shaping operation’ bolsters Russian security

First there was a mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin. This was followed by an “offensive”, the embarrassing effect of which for Moscow could lead it to divert front-line troops to the border areas. Then, late last week, Ukraine launched a maritime drone attack on a Russian spy ship in the Black Sea. About two dozen aerial drones attacked Moscow on Tuesday morning.

Such strikes are four of an increasingly daring “shaping operation” that Ukraine has launched this month, ahead of Kiev’s long-anticipated retaliatory offensive when it aims to recapture occupied territory .

These shape-shifting operations are part of standard military practice, ranging from token strikes to more strategically important strikes. Their purpose, defense officials and analysts said, is to deceive the enemy, interfere with its mindset and otherwise “shape” the battlefield before a major offensive.

“Acts of deception have always been a part of warfare, but now their effect is amplified by social media,” said John Spencer, a former US Army major who chairs urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. “They are Ukrainian gray zone operations that require Russia to expend resources – whether military or information operations. They are like the sleight of hand of a magician: they deceive the viewer and divert his attention elsewhere. Let’s apply

The explosion of two drones against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s golden dome on May 3, for which Kiev denied any responsibility, was the first of Ukraine’s recent dramatic attacks.

Then, in Tuesday morning’s attacks on Moscow, which followed a wave of Russian attacks on Kiev, multiple drones exploded over the capital. Russian officials claimed to have shot them all before they reached their targets but the attack again exposed the vulnerability of the capital.

A senior Ukrainian official said, “A successful offensive begins with a successful psychological offensive.” “Their (Russian) morale is not at its highest.”

An equally bizarre incident coincided with an incursion by two Ukraine-backed extremist groups into Russia’s border province of Belgorod on 22 May, which a Ukrainian official said showed the Russians “that their borders are not impenetrable”.

Ukrainian social media lit up with memes announcing the establishment of the “Belgorod People’s Republic”. In Russia, by contrast, the raid dismayed hardline military bloggers, and led to heated criticism of the Defense Ministry by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner paramilitary group, which has led Russian attacks in the Donbass town of Bakhmut.

In the one-hour video, Prigozhin lectures locals on how to set up better defences, and says Russia needs to increase its military presence along the border. On Monday, after the area was reportedly hit by Ukrainian shelling, Belgorod’s governor said “we are living in a real state of war”.

“The idea is to create a lot of dilemmas for the Russian command structure,” said Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author. how to fight a war, “Problems – like front-line breakthroughs – drive focus. Dilemmas, by contrast, paralyze action.

The shaping operation seems to have had some psychological effect in Moscow. Commenting on the Belgorod incursion, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the war required “very difficult and stressful work” that “constantly raises questions”.

A Ukrainian military intelligence officer meanwhile commented that the raids and others that “(Russian) may seek to shock morale and force them to redeploy troops along the border” – although “we have not yet Haven’t seen the signal”, the officer added.

Ukraine successfully used a similar tactic last summer. For weeks it talked up the notion of a Southern counter-offensive. When Russian forces moved south in anticipation of that attack, Kiev instead launched a blitzkrieg northward, penetrating through the thin Russian lines around Kharkiv.

“Ukraine is using the Russian playbook against Russia,” Spencer said, pointing out that Moscow has consistently raised the possibility it could launch an attack from the territory of its ally Belarus.

“While an attack is unlikely, the mere possibility of it has forced Ukraine to recover troops nearby,” Spencer said. “Ukrainians are now similarly distracting Russian attention.”

Russia has not stood idly by. It has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities it claims to be military targets. As the final of the Eurovision Song Contest was being held in the UK, it bombed the Ukrainian act’s home city of Ternopil.

You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is probably due to being offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser.

On 13 May a large explosion, possibly that of an ammunition depot, also rocked the city of Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine, causing damage to schools, medical centres, apartment buildings and industrial facilities. local mayor, The city’s air base was also attacked on Monday.

In addition, Russia has deployed its own information operations, such as spoofing the tracking data of commercial ships to create Impression of a 65km long Russian pro-war Z symbol in the Black Sea. It also built formidable defensive fortifications along the front line.

Western officials have cautioned that it is unclear how effective Ukraine’s retaliatory strike will prove. But Ukraine will continue its shaping operations, combining them with precision strikes that seek to destroy Russian military assets and capabilities, he said.

These could include long-range strikes using UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov called a “treat” to drone strikes, which senior Ukrainian officials called “thick targets” , such as the reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs.

A senior Western official said, “They (Ukrainians) are testing and investigating and finding out what works and what doesn’t.” “The whole point of this counteroffensive is that neither Russia nor[the Western allies]know when it really started, and what we’re seeing now is forcing the Russians to second-guess themselves.” “

From a Ukrainian perspective, that nagging uncertainty is important. Commenting on state television last week after the Belgorod attack, Ukraine’s national security chief Oleksiy Danilov said: “They (the Russians) need to get used to it.”

Additional reporting by Ben Hall in London and Max Seddon in Riga

First there was a mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin. This was followed by an “offensive”, the embarrassing effect of which for Moscow could lead it to divert front-line troops to the border areas. Then, late last week, Ukraine launched a maritime drone attack on a Russian spy ship in the Black Sea. About two dozen aerial drones attacked Moscow on Tuesday morning.

Such strikes are four of an increasingly daring “shaping operation” that Ukraine has launched this month, ahead of Kiev’s long-anticipated retaliatory offensive when it aims to recapture occupied territory .

These shape-shifting operations are part of standard military practice, ranging from token strikes to more strategically important strikes. Their purpose, defense officials and analysts said, is to deceive the enemy, interfere with its mindset and otherwise “shape” the battlefield before a major offensive.

“Acts of deception have always been a part of warfare, but now their effect is amplified by social media,” said John Spencer, a former US Army major who chairs urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. “They are Ukrainian gray zone operations that require Russia to expend resources – whether military or information operations. They are like the sleight of hand of a magician: they deceive the viewer and divert his attention elsewhere. Let’s apply

The explosion of two drones against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s golden dome on May 3, for which Kiev denied any responsibility, was the first of Ukraine’s recent dramatic attacks.

Then, in Tuesday morning’s attacks on Moscow, which followed a wave of Russian attacks on Kiev, multiple drones exploded over the capital. Russian officials claimed to have shot them all before they reached their targets but the attack again exposed the vulnerability of the capital.

A senior Ukrainian official said, “A successful offensive begins with a successful psychological offensive.” “Their (Russian) morale is not at its highest.”

An equally bizarre incident coincided with an incursion by two Ukraine-backed extremist groups into Russia’s border province of Belgorod on 22 May, which a Ukrainian official said showed the Russians “that their borders are not impenetrable”.

Ukrainian social media lit up with memes announcing the establishment of the “Belgorod People’s Republic”. In Russia, by contrast, the raid dismayed hardline military bloggers, and led to heated criticism of the Defense Ministry by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner paramilitary group, which has led Russian attacks in the Donbass town of Bakhmut.

In the one-hour video, Prigozhin lectures locals on how to set up better defences, and says Russia needs to increase its military presence along the border. On Monday, after the area was reportedly hit by Ukrainian shelling, Belgorod’s governor said “we are living in a real state of war”.

“The idea is to create a lot of dilemmas for the Russian command structure,” said Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author. how to fight a war, “Problems – like front-line breakthroughs – drive focus. Dilemmas, by contrast, paralyze action.

The shaping operation seems to have had some psychological effect in Moscow. Commenting on the Belgorod incursion, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the war required “very difficult and stressful work” that “constantly raises questions”.

A Ukrainian military intelligence officer meanwhile commented that the raids and others that “(Russian) may seek to shock morale and force them to redeploy troops along the border” – although “we have not yet Haven’t seen the signal”, the officer added.

Ukraine successfully used a similar tactic last summer. For weeks it talked up the notion of a Southern counter-offensive. When Russian forces moved south in anticipation of that attack, Kiev instead launched a blitzkrieg northward, penetrating through the thin Russian lines around Kharkiv.

“Ukraine is using the Russian playbook against Russia,” Spencer said, pointing out that Moscow has consistently raised the possibility it could launch an attack from the territory of its ally Belarus.

“While an attack is unlikely, the mere possibility of it has forced Ukraine to recover troops nearby,” Spencer said. “Ukrainians are now similarly distracting Russian attention.”

Russia has not stood idly by. It has stepped up missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities it claims to be military targets. As the final of the Eurovision Song Contest was being held in the UK, it bombed the Ukrainian act’s home city of Ternopil.

You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is probably due to being offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser.

On 13 May a large explosion, possibly that of an ammunition depot, also rocked the city of Khmelnitsky in western Ukraine, causing damage to schools, medical centres, apartment buildings and industrial facilities. local mayor, The city’s air base was also attacked on Monday.

In addition, Russia has deployed its own information operations, such as spoofing the tracking data of commercial ships to create Impression of a 65km long Russian pro-war Z symbol in the Black Sea. It also built formidable defensive fortifications along the front line.

Western officials have cautioned that it is unclear how effective Ukraine’s retaliatory strike will prove. But Ukraine will continue its shaping operations, combining them with precision strikes that seek to destroy Russian military assets and capabilities, he said.

These could include long-range strikes using UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov called a “treat” to drone strikes, which senior Ukrainian officials called “thick targets” , such as the reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs.

A senior Western official said, “They (Ukrainians) are testing and investigating and finding out what works and what doesn’t.” “The whole point of this counteroffensive is that neither Russia nor[the Western allies]know when it really started, and what we’re seeing now is forcing the Russians to second-guess themselves.” “

From a Ukrainian perspective, that nagging uncertainty is important. Commenting on state television last week after the Belgorod attack, Ukraine’s national security chief Oleksiy Danilov said: “They (the Russians) need to get used to it.”

Additional reporting by Ben Hall in London and Max Seddon in Riga