Kyriakos Mitsotakis set to return to power in Greek elections

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Greeks voted on Sunday in a general election for the second time in less than two months, which is likely to bring back the centre-right government led by former Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

According to GPO polling, in the week before the election, Mitsotakis’ New Democracy party led the polls with more than 40 percent, followed by the left-wing Syriza party with close to 20 percent.

“The only question in these elections is the extent of Mitsotakis’ victory,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group. “Whether it’s a comfortable majority or a landslide victory for New Democracy.”

New Democracy came first in the May elections but fell short of a clear majority. Mitsotakis then resigned and called for new elections, knowing that they would be held under a new electoral law that gives bonus seats to the leading party and may be enough to form a majority government.

With stocks and bonds rallying over the past weeks, markets have reacted positively to the prospect of a more pro-business new democracy government. The country’s rating is expected to be upgraded to investment grade by the end of the year, a sign that Greece has put the decade-long economic crisis far behind.

Rahman said, “Misotakis now has complete control of his party.” His previous term was overshadowed by problems such as COVID, rising energy prices linked to the war in Ukraine, and high inflation.

Mitsotakis was also embroiled in scandals including wiretapping of journalists and political opponents and his handling of a fatal train accident, which were factors in slowing a series of reforms. The boat that carried hundreds of migrants off the Greek coast negatively reflected on the tough stance on migration he has taken while in office, even though he was not in charge at the time of the accident.

However voters still favor the centre-right leader ahead of former far-left prime minister Alexis Tsipras Unable to return. Tsipras’ opposition Syriza party lost a third of the vote in the last election. According to the polls, Greece’s centre-left party Pasok is expected to remain in third place without significantly increasing its tally.

“The opposition was unable to bridge the gap with New Democracy,” said Dimitris Papadimitriou, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, UK. “This creates a window for the ND to dominate the political landscape in the near future,” he said, as the opposition is expected to be disorganized in the following years.

A weakened opposition would also give Mitsotakis the opportunity to introduce a series of reforms. Rehman said, “This time, he has no excuse to stop important and far-reaching reforms like the judiciary.”

During his campaign, Mitsotakis repeatedly promised to reform the health care and justice systems, which are among the slowest in Europe. “It won’t be easy,” Papadimitriou said. To do so, he must face Greece’s most powerful lobby and a highly flexible bureaucracy.