Drug war threatens Ecuador’s stability ahead of elections

On a recent spring morning in the town of Esmeraldas on Ecuador’s Pacific coast, the sound of gunfire filled the air. About 30 men came on speedboats and killed nine workers before fleeing last month, in a reminder that the country is no longer safe.

Drug-related violence in the form of prison massacres, shootings at funerals and dismembered bodies is becoming a grim daily reality for Ecuador, which until a few years ago was a relatively quiet haven between violent neighbors Colombia and Peru.

Now traffickers from those two countries – the world’s biggest cocaine producers – along with rivals Mexico and Albania, have spread across the once-stable country to strengthen distribution routes while terrorizing the population.

With the midterm elections due in August, a wave of bloodshed seems to dominate the campaign. Nearly two-thirds of Ecuadorians name security as their biggest concern, according to local pollster opinion files,

“Ecuador was not prepared for this violence, and the security forces and the general public do not know how to react,” said Maria Teresa Escobar, who runs the political website Primicias. “Earlier it was so safe that people didn’t think about crime and left their doors open.”

Ecuador is practically awash in organized crime

The country’s per capita murder rate has surpassed that of Mexico and Brazil, with more than 4,800 murders in the nation of 18mn last year, nearly double the year-on-year rate and quadruple that of 2018, according to the interior ministry.

The increase in violence follows the cartel’s expansion into Ecuador, where port security is relatively lax and the drastic drop in living standards in the COVID pandemic has provided a steady supply of recruits for the gangs.

“People want to see a candidate who steps into the ring with a defined and strong message on security policy from day one,” said Will Freeman, fellow in Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The crime wave shocked the two-year-old administration of conservative President Guillermo Lasso, who last week avoided an impeachment trial by dissolving Congress, triggering elections for Congress and the presidency.

Lasso denied the embezzlement allegations behind the impeachment trial, which related to a contract signed three years before the start of his presidency, and said they distracted the government from dealing with the crime wave.

Lasso has often been attacked by the opposition-controlled Congress for his inability to contain the violence, despite a debt restructuring deal with China and praise for the country’s Covid vaccination campaign.

Ana Belen Cordero, a former legislator and Lasso’s ally, said the level of violent crime met the criteria for “crisis and internal commotion” needed to use the so-called “mutual death” clause of the constitution that forced Congress to shut down. Gave the permission to.

Elections for the President and Congress will be held on August 20. If none of the presidential candidates get more than 50 percent of the vote, the run-off will take place on October 15.

Ratings agency Fitch last week changed its outlook for Ecuador from stable to negative, citing ongoing political instability. It said the crime outbreak would require increased government spending.

Fernando Villavicencio, the first candidate to announce his intention to run, said that tackling the well-financed mafia would be his main message.

“Ecuador is practically awash in organized crime,” Villavicencio, a centrist former journalist and lawmaker, told the FT. He said that if elected, he and the security forces would deal with financiers of criminals “with the Constitution in one hand and a gun in the other”.

The wave of violence has been concentrated in coastal areas, where gangs fight at ports and on delivery routes, but in the capital Quito, high in the Andes, the fear of crime pervades daily life.

When night falls, the streets that are usually full of life and commerce go quiet. Shops are closed, while armed private security guards patrol outside restaurants and hotels. Companies selling body armor and bullet proofing for vehicles report a booming business.

“You can’t walk here at night, and you can’t carry a wallet or wear jewellery,” said Patricia Mayancela, who runs a small grocery store south of Quito. Her customers dwindled after she was forced to close two hours earlier than before to keep herself and her store safe.

Police are unskilled and untrained to deal with violent crime. The military – recently empowered by Lasso’s designation of criminal gangs as terrorist organizations – could be deployed, although analysts say generals are wary of plunging into a war between smugglers.

The US ambassador to Ecuador, Michael Fitzpatrick, told local media two years ago that the upper echelons of the military had been infiltrated by “narco-generals”.

After the massacre at Esmeraldas, Lasso ordered 2,000 soldiers to patrol its streets. Three members of the cartel were arrested in connection with the murder.

Alberto Acosta-Bernio, a prominent economist, said the rhetorical campaign around a crime wave could “open the door” to an authoritarian government.

Ecuador has taken authoritarian turns in the past, most recently during the presidency of socialist Rafael Correa from 2007-2017, who deployed security forces to suppress dissent while taking a permissive approach to drug trafficking. Correa lives in Belgium to avoid prison following a corruption conviction. So far no one from his movement has announced their candidacy in this year’s election.

At least two potential candidates take their cues from El Salvador’s strongman President Nayib Bukele, who has won praise across Latin America for his crackdown on gangs, despite criticism of his human rights record.

One of them, Otto Sonnenholzner – an independent former vice president of the crime-ridden port city of Guayaquil – had previously consulted Victor López, a Spanish political activist who had worked on Bucel’s campaign.

Another candidate, Jan Topic — a political novice who says he served as a soldier in Ukraine and Syria — didn’t hide his admiration for the Salvadoran president.

“Nyab Bukele has the ability, the determination to do things and do them well,” he told US media. “And that’s what we’re going to do.”