Analysis of Russia’s move to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus

Nuclear weapons are being deployed outside Russia for the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The Kremlin has officially announced that it is going to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus within the next three weeks. While the agreement between Russian and Belarus was signed in the last week of May 2023, many questions still remain to be answered. First, it is not clear how many nuclear weapons are being deployed now. Second, what kind of delivery mechanism is being incorporated with these weapons and third, how powerful are these nukes. Although the Kremlin has clearly mentioned that these are strategic nukes and therefore will have a comparatively low yield of less than 50 kilotons and will not be able to wipe out cities, but even with these limited capabilities, they are capable of breaking one’s backbone. enough to instill fear in me. Enemy.

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that the nukes are already being moved from Russia and that special storage facilities in Belarus are now ready to hold them. The Russian move to deploy nuclear has once again brought back memories of the Cold War, where irresponsible moves by the United States and the Soviet Union threatened the entire world. In September last year, Dmitry Medvedev, former President and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, fueled the issue by saying that Russia has the right to defend itself with nuclear weapons if it is pushed beyond its limits and it certainly does. Not a hoax. We now know from the physical movement of nuclear weapons in Belarus that this was not a hoax. However, since there are four nuclear capable countries in the region, namely US, UK, France and Russia, this move could start a rat race if things are not controlled in time and bring back horrifying memories of the Cold War when more than 7300 Nuclear weapons were deployed in Europe alone, threatening to wipe out humanity.

Analyzing the recent events, we should consider the fact whether this step of Russia is an action or a reaction? The Kremlin has clearly stated two things in the past. Firstly, it is not the first country to deploy nuclear weapons outside its country and secondly, it is not violating any nuclear proliferation treaty by doing so. Russian officials claimed that Russia is doing this for the first time in 32 years, the United States having kept its nuclear weapons in Europe continuously since 1950. Even when the Cold War had ended and the erstwhile USSR removed its nuclear weapons from other countries, the US did not do the same despite signing the treaty. Even today, it maintains an undisclosed stockpile of nuclear weapons at six major NATO bases in Europe, namely Klein-Brogel Air Base in Belgium, Buchkel Air Base in Germany, Aviano and Ghedi Air Bases in Italy, Völkel Air Base and Inserlik in the Netherlands. turkey. While the US never disclosed the exact number of weapons stored at these sites, it is estimated that the number may exceed 100. These weapons are stored in the WS-3 underground weapons storage vaults and their Permissive Action Link (PAL) codes remain in American. Control. Russia says it is doing exactly that by building special weapons storage facilities in Belarus that will remain under Russian control and therefore will not violate any nuclear or missile non-proliferation treaties.

With yields ranging from 0.5 kilotons to about 50 kilotons, these tactical nukes will have comparatively low impact and are intended for military use only. Russia has extensively specialized in these strategic nuclear weapons over the past thirty years and currently has over 2000 such strategic nuclear weapons, more than any other country. Russia has already given 10 aircraft capable and modified to carry nuclear weapons to Belarus in March this year. Not only this, but Russia has already delivered a large number of Iskander strategic missiles to Belarus, which are not only capable of carrying strategic nuclear weapons, but with their limited range of 500 km, can also reach important NATO bases in Europe . Its purpose is to send a clear message to Europe, especially to NATO allies.

Belarus shares a border with three NATO allies namely Poland, Lithuania and Latvia and with nuclear weapons stationed on its territory, it now has the capability to attack most NATO allies in Europe. Europe remains sandwiched between Russia and the US and will suffer the most in case of escalation of tensions. Even with the ongoing Ukraine Russia conflict, it is Europe that has suffered the most on both the economic and military fronts. It suffered the most during the days of the Cold War and will face difficult times in the times to come. It has been said many times before that in the event of any further increase, Europe will suffer the most. Therefore, to protect itself, the onus lies on Europe to make efforts towards mitigating the situation before it spirals out of control.