‘All or nothing’: Spain’s Pedro Sanchez gambles on snap election

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, whose career has been marked by near-death experiences and audacious gambits, has made his boldest bet yet by calling a general election a day after voters scolded him.

Sánchez announced the vote on 23 July, five months earlier than expected, saying that the defeat of his Socialist Party to the People’s Party in local and regional elections meant that it was necessary to “clarify” the will of the people, a Hit the tone of humble humility.

But analysts say it is in their interests to bring the vote forward from December, giving the shrewd political strategy a slim chance of consolidating votes on the left and turning the specter of a coalition with the hard-right Vox party into a problem for conservatives. Changed. pp.

“It’s a smart move,” said Alicia Gil-Torres, a political consultant and professor at the University of Valladolid. “It’s all or nothing.”

Yet even if his chances of survival in the July election are better, his party’s loss of territories on Sunday shows the odds are stacked against him.

The first thing the snap poll achieves is to fend off months of recriminations within the Socialist Party and even potential challenges to Sanchez’s leadership, which will leave it even more vulnerable by the time December’s polling comes around.

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The potential for infighting is high due to bad blood nurtured by Sanchez from his past dealings.

The Prime Minister has earned a reputation outside Spain as a skilled international politician. But some in his own party still see him as the politician who emerged virtually unknown to win the leadership of the Socialist Party, or PSOE, in 2014, before being ousted in an internal coup two years later with only two heavy To preside over electoral defeat.

Gil-Torres said, “When he first left the PSOE, nobody gave a damn about him.” But after eight months in the wilderness he captured grassroots support to reclaim the party’s leadership in 2017 against a rival favored by its former prime ministers.

The following year he became prime minister himself in extraordinary circumstances, using a vote of no confidence over corruption to convince parliament to oust a sitting government for the first time in Spain’s democratic history.

But his time in office has been marked by the fragmentation of the parties on the left.

José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that Sánchez “may think he can capitalize on the weaknesses of the two left-wing parties” to attract votes from them and strengthen his position among progressives.

One is Podemos, the once-electric political brand and its coalition partner since 2019, which fared poorly on Sunday and was tainted by its association with a draconian sex-consent law that has resulted in prison sentences for some sex offenders. Decreased. The other party is Sumar, a group founded this year by Yolanda Díaz, one of Sanchez’s deputy prime ministers, which itself aims to consolidate leftist votes. It did not field a candidate in Sunday’s polls and may not be fully prepared for a general election in seven weeks.

But Torreblanca was skeptical whether the ploy would work. “Voters do not see the Socialist Party as a standalone party. They see it as part of a pack,” he said – and one that also includes controversial Catalan and Basque separatists. “Sanchez has no chance of staying in power on his own.”

Díaz of Sumer, who joined Sanchez’s coalition as a Communist Party member, tweeted on Monday: “(People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez) In the face of Feijo’s dark Spain, we are out to win.”

The other potential advantage of a snap election for prime minister is that it would highlight the PP’s most difficult obstacle after the regional vote: the fact that it won few absolute majorities in legislatures – except in Madrid – which means it will probably be defeated. A coalition or voting agreement would be needed to form a government.

A right-wing populist party, Vox advocates climate change, protection of “Christian heritage” and is critical of feminists and globalists. Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said “the socialists will try to use the specter of Vox in alliance with the PP at the national level to turn centrist voters away from the PP” and to dissuade people from voting. can be taken out.

The next few weeks will be the perfect time to do so as Vox and PP engage in semi-public talks over potential regional deals, a piece of conservative political theater that the prime minister will re-engage in a central part of his campaign.

But Sanchez’s shrewdness can only take him so far. “The snap election is basically set up to try to prevent a catastrophe in December,” Simone said. “But it’s too difficult for him,

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, whose career has been marked by near-death experiences and audacious gambits, has made his boldest bet yet by calling a general election a day after voters scolded him.

Sánchez announced the vote on 23 July, five months earlier than expected, saying that the defeat of his Socialist Party to the People’s Party in local and regional elections meant that it was necessary to “clarify” the will of the people, a Hit the tone of humble humility.

But analysts say it is in their interests to bring the vote forward from December, giving the shrewd political strategy a slim chance of consolidating votes on the left and turning the specter of a coalition with the hard-right Vox party into a problem for conservatives. Changed. pp.

“It’s a smart move,” said Alicia Gil-Torres, a political consultant and professor at the University of Valladolid. “It’s all or nothing.”

Yet even if his chances of survival in the July election are better, his party’s loss of territories on Sunday shows the odds are stacked against him.

The first thing the snap poll achieves is to fend off months of recriminations within the Socialist Party and even potential challenges to Sanchez’s leadership, which will leave it even more vulnerable by the time December’s polling comes around.

You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is probably due to being offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser.

You are viewing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is probably due to being offline or JavaScript is disabled in your browser.

The potential for infighting is high due to bad blood nurtured by Sanchez from his past dealings.

The Prime Minister has earned a reputation outside Spain as a skilled international politician. But some in his own party still see him as the politician who emerged virtually unknown to win the leadership of the Socialist Party, or PSOE, in 2014, before being ousted in an internal coup two years later with only two heavy To preside over electoral defeat.

Gil-Torres said, “When he first left the PSOE, nobody gave a damn about him.” But after eight months in the wilderness he captured grassroots support to reclaim the party’s leadership in 2017 against a rival favored by its former prime ministers.

The following year he became prime minister himself in extraordinary circumstances, using a vote of no confidence over corruption to convince parliament to oust a sitting government for the first time in Spain’s democratic history.

But his time in office has been marked by the fragmentation of the parties on the left.

José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that Sánchez “may think he can capitalize on the weaknesses of the two left-wing parties” to attract votes from them and strengthen his position among progressives.

One is Podemos, the once-electric political brand and its coalition partner since 2019, which fared poorly on Sunday and was tainted by its association with a draconian sex-consent law that has resulted in prison sentences for some sex offenders. Decreased. The other party is Sumar, a group founded this year by Yolanda Díaz, one of Sanchez’s deputy prime ministers, which itself aims to consolidate leftist votes. It did not field a candidate in Sunday’s polls and may not be fully prepared for a general election in seven weeks.

But Torreblanca was skeptical whether the ploy would work. “Voters do not see the Socialist Party as a standalone party. They see it as part of a pack,” he said – and one that also includes controversial Catalan and Basque separatists. “Sanchez has no chance of staying in power on his own.”

Díaz of Sumer, who joined Sanchez’s coalition as a Communist Party member, tweeted on Monday: “(People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez) In the face of Feijo’s dark Spain, we are out to win.”

The other potential advantage of a snap election for prime minister is that it would highlight the PP’s most difficult obstacle after the regional vote: the fact that it won few absolute majorities in legislatures – except in Madrid – which means it will probably be defeated. A coalition or voting agreement would be needed to form a government.

A right-wing populist party, Vox advocates climate change, protection of “Christian heritage” and is critical of feminists and globalists. Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at Madrid’s Carlos III University, said “the socialists will try to use the specter of Vox in alliance with the PP at the national level to turn centrist voters away from the PP” and to dissuade people from voting. can be taken out.

The next few weeks will be the perfect time to do so as Vox and PP engage in semi-public talks over potential regional deals, a piece of conservative political theater that the prime minister will re-engage in a central part of his campaign.

But Sanchez’s shrewdness can only take him so far. “The snap election is basically set up to try to prevent a catastrophe in December,” Simone said. “But it’s too difficult for him,