Advances in technology are increasing the popularity of electric vehicles, new research finds

Transportation accounts for about one-third of US greenhouse gas emissions, and the adoption of electric vehicles is seen by many experts in government and the private sector as an important tool in efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Roughly a decade ago, the share of EVs in total car sales was very small. By March 2023, They Make Up 7% of New Sales

“What changed between then and now?” asks Kenneth Gillingham, professor of environmental and energy economics at the Yale School of the Environment. “Was it that consumers suddenly decided they preferred EVs more, or was it that EVs themselves got a lot better?”

New research by Gillingham, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, finds that while recent EV adoption has been heavily influenced by technological advances, general consumer preferences for EVs have changed little. Improvements such as increased battery range, faster charging, falling prices and lower operating costs have made EVs an attractive alternative to their gas-powered counterparts. (Range proved especially important, with cars that could travel 300 miles or more on a single charge essentially in the minds of consumers as comparable gas cars, the study shows.)

Gillingham and co-authors from Carnegie Mellon University surveyed nearly 1,600 people who had an intention to buy a car or SUV within the next two years, or who had bought a car within the past year. Respondents were shown 15 sets of three vehicles with different characteristics—some gasoline-powered, some electric, some hybrid—and asked which they would choose. The results of this survey matched those of a similar survey conducted in 2012 and 2013, and from this comparison the researchers were able to determine how much of the new EV adoption was due to consumer preferences and how much to technological progress. was due to This prompted another investigation.

“The big question is what happens next,” Gillingham says.

To answer this, the researchers combined consumer adoption trends with predicted improvements in vehicle technology and predictions of new EV offerings. Gillingham noted that more than 100 new EV models are expected to be available globally in the next three to four years. Overall, this information suggests that EVs could account for 40-60% of all new cars and SUVs sold by 2030. In short, it’s possible that EVs could dominate the market only seven years from now.

For policy makers, the authors note, the findings suggest that rapid change and ambitious goals are achievable. Gillingham cites one of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s recently proposed rules to limit greenhouse gas emissions for cars and small trucks, which, if adopted, would account for nearly two percent of all new vehicle sales by 2032. -Third EVs may join.

“Our study by no means says this is going to happen, but it is not outside the realm of possibility. We may actually have EVs making up the majority of all cars sold by 2030, Gillingham says.

The implications for manufacturers are also clear – and many have already responded to the apparent shift in the market. GM has announced plans to sell only EVs until 2035. Lexus under Toyota has also announced the same target. The findings of this research, Gillingham suggests, support the deeper investment needed for such a transition.

“Vehicle manufacturers who are leaders in the EV space will take comfort in what we’ve found,” he says. “Backward manufacturers might want to think carefully about what their plans are.”