Military briefing: Russia will benefit most from the collapse of the Ukrainian dam

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam and power plant that spread floodwaters across southern Ukraine is likely to limit Kiev’s options in its initial counter-offensive, according to military officials and analysts.

Moscow and Kiev on Tuesday blamed the collapse of the dam, which spans the Dnieper River and is located in Russia’s occupied Kherson province.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed it was a “deliberate act of sabotage by the Ukrainian side aimed at depriving Crimea of ​​water” and intended to divert attention from the “stuttering Ukrainian offensive”.

But Ukraine’s state-owned hydroelectric company, UkrHydroenergo, said an explosion inside the engine room had caused the dam to collapse, while President Volodymyr Zelensky said “Russian terrorists” were at fault.

“It is physically impossible to somehow blow it out with firepower. It was mined. It was mined by the Russian occupiers and blown up by them, ”he said. “Russia bombed with massive environmental damage. It is the biggest man-made environmental disaster in Europe in decades.”

None of the claims could be immediately verified.

But some military analysts and Ukrainian officials say the timing of the dam’s destruction is questionable, as it largely benefits Russia by thwarting Kiev’s plans to attack to the south and increasing the likelihood of an offensive to the east. , on which Moscow can focus. The Russian military has failed to make any significant progress on the battlefield this year since announcing the invasion in January.

“The objective is clear: to create insurmountable obstacles in the way of advancing Ukrainian armed forces,” said Mykhailo Podolić, a top Zelensky adviser.

Footage shared on social media showed water swallowing a destroyed dam and flooding towns and villages along the Dnipro River. Ukrainian authorities raced to evacuate thousands of residents in government-controlled areas affected by the floods.

Ukraine is expected to launch an offensive to the south and try to break the “land bridge” linking Russian territory with the occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces as well as the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Will try to separate. The connection is important for Russian military logistics and supplies. If Kiev reaches the strategic city of Melitopol or the Sea of ​​Azov, it would be a major blow to Russia’s southern hold and the morale of its army.

The dam breach came as the Ukrainian military stepped up attacks in recent days on several locations along the 1,000km border line in the south and east of the country, signaling that a long-awaited retaliation was possibly underway.

Ukraine’s defense ministry said on Tuesday that its forces have captured more territory near the Donbass town of Bakhmut, which Russian troops and Wagner’s mercenaries completely captured in May after 10 months of fierce fighting. It was and remains the “epicenter” of the fighting.

“Russia benefits from smaller front lines because it is easier to concentrate forces to prevent breakthroughs,” said Rob Lee, senior fellow at the US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute. “So if a Ukrainian operation in Kherson is less likely, they may be able to move more forces to the east.”

A Ukrainian military official said on condition of anonymity that authorities were assessing the damage caused by the floods and would adjust their response plans accordingly.

“If we had any plans for a landing operation there, we certainly wouldn’t be doing it anytime soon,” he said. “Immediately after (the flood), the land would essentially be a swamp.”

Andrey Zagorodnyuk, a military adviser and former Ukrainian defense minister, said it was likely that Kiev’s generals “have alternative plans”. The flood may be a setback, he said, but it will not stop Ukraine’s retaliatory strike.

“If we want to cross the river there, it will not happen,” he said. “Basically, it denies us any ability to cross the river and move equipment into that area. Essentially, that’s why most likely Russia did it, especially now.”

Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, a government unit, said it was possible that Russian forces blew up the dam into flooded islands downstream, which it said had been recaptured by Ukrainian troops on Monday. was captured.

“Another possible reason is the desire to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine in conditions where the occupiers have lost hope of maintaining their control over the south of Ukraine,” it added.

The flood, a Western official said, “would have massive effects on civilian infrastructure that is difficult to regenerate in the middle of a war. If you advertise widely that you are about to launch a counteroffensive, you also Not surprisingly, opponents retaliate.

But the flood affects the Russian army as well. “The destruction of the dam flooded the first Russian line of defense east of the Dnipro River in Kherson, although the threat of Ukrainians crossing the river was always low,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Washington-based Center for Naval Analysis. -based think tank. “Nobody benefits from this disaster, and it will hit the Russian occupation zone the most.”

Russia’s military bloggers, who enthusiastically support the war but criticize the army’s leadership, largely supported the official version of events.

“It is our left bank which is suffering more from the floods. It makes no sense why we would do this,” wrote Alexander Kots, a Russian war reporter for the pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda.

But some could not help but rejoice in the difficulties created by the collapse of the dam in response to Ukraine’s action in the region.

Egor Guzenko, a Russian volunteer fighter and blogger, said, “I won’t say who flew it or evaluate it in any way.” “But from a strategic point of view, (Ukraine) can forget about an offensive in Kherson.”

Additional reporting by John Paul Rathbone in London