Russia gets new weapon in Ukraine war due to dam break

After weeks of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory and cross-border raids – with a long-awaited retaliatory strike now gathering momentum – it is Russia’s turn to distract and destabilize its enemy. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnieper River is much more than a psychological game. This will have long-lasting humanitarian and environmental consequences and military implications.

Russia, which controls the region, has denied responsibility and blamed Ukrainian shelling for the dam breach. These claims are unbelievable. Kiev gained nothing from the devastating flood. It is possible that structures damaged in previous attacks have given way. The Russian occupation authorities had allowed the water in the reservoir to rise to an unusually high level, which would make it a case of criminal neglect.

But the timing of an accident seems eerily fortuitous for the Kremlin, with the Ukrainian military the next day stepping up its offensive on a number of targets along the front line to the east. It looks like the start of a counter-offensive, even though Kiev has denied calling it that. And Moscow has previously shown intent to use the flood as a weapon.

Russian forces rigged the dam with explosives last autumn after Ukrainian forces liberated the right bank of the river. They have attacked other hydroelectric power plants in their attempt to destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. And last September they fired eight cruise missiles at a dam on the nearby Inhulets River, setting off a torrent and hindering the advance of Ukrainian troops in the area.

The Ukrainian government claimed on Tuesday that the Kakhovka dam may have been destroyed to prevent its troops from using islands on the river liberated on Monday for an amphibious assault into occupied Kherson province. This was unlikely to be the route for a large-scale Ukrainian counter-offensive. But it could reduce Kiev’s options for smaller attacks in the south of the country in support of a larger thrust elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s authorities have a humanitarian disaster to contend with, which will inevitably divert the government’s attention from its crucial summer counteroffensive. Theoretically, emptying the reservoir upstream of the dam threatens the water supply to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. But since six of its reactors have been shut down and less cooling water is needed, the facility’s cistern should be sufficient. Still, some sort of nuclear incident in Zaporizhia as a weapon of war now seems less improbable than it used to be.

Damage to the dam could also cut off water supplies to Russian-occupied Crimea, causing problems for Moscow. But for the time being, the Kremlin is busier than anywhere else it can do to thwart Ukraine’s military progress. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam sends a message that Moscow is still capable of escalating its war. The question is how far it is prepared to go. He wants Ukraine and its Western allies to believe that it has many options left.

ben.hall@ft.com