Rajasthan Elections 2023: The Caste Countdown – And Why Pilot Matters in 30 Seats

Jaipur: With Rajasthan going to polls in December this year, there are important caste equations that need to be studied and understood for social engineering in this state, which is a bit complex and complicated. Over the years, these caste equations have been baffling for many parties. The eastern belt is an important region of Rajasthan known for the dominance of Meena and Gujjar votes, while the Shekhawati and Marwar belts are known for significant Jat votes. In 2018, the Meenas surprised everyone by rejecting the biggest leader of their community, Kirorilal Meena. Among Jats, Hanuman Beniwal won with a record margin as he branded himself as a Jat leader.

He contested the assembly elections as an independent and later aligned with the BJP from Nagaur. Later, he also contested the parliamentary elections and won. Recently, he broke his alliance with BJP due to the issue of agricultural laws. The BJP recently held its state executive meeting in Nagaur to woo voters in the region.

However, Beniwal still stands firm among his community and has declared that he will extend his full support to Sachin Pilot if he forms his own party. Jats actually form the largest caste group in Rajasthan with 9% of the population, with 31 constituencies in the Marwar and Shekhawati regions dominated by Jats. Their importance and unity can be gauged from the fact that voters in these constituencies sent 25 winners from this community.

Overall, they got 37 seats in the 200-member state assembly, for which elections were held on 7 December 2018. The Jats are followed by the Rajputs with 6% of the population, who hold 17 seats. Next is the Gujjar community, which dominates about 30 to 35 seats in eastern Rajasthan. They have traditionally been voters of the BJP, but then voted for the Congress, showing loyalty to their community leader Sachin Pilot.

The community has influence in at least 30 seats including Dausa, Karauli, Hindaun and Tonk. Together, Meenas and Gurjars comprise 13% of the state’s population. A party leader said, “Gurjars have traditionally been supporters of the BJP, but last time they voted for the Congress because of Pilot.”

The Meenas are known to be Congress supporters, but then rejected their own community leader Kirorilal Meena, who claims to be the tallest tribal leader in the state. 18 Meena MLAs were elected in the last election; Of these, nine are Congress, five BJP and three independents.

The Meenas continued to support the Congress despite the return of their leader Kirorilal Meena to the BJP. According to political analysts, the community “supported the Congress without looking at the candidate, as they were not heard in the BJP government.” Together, Meenas and Gurjars comprise 13% of the state’s population. Now everyone’s eyes are fixed on the assembly elections 2023.

The first important question is where will Gurjar vote? It is a billion dollar question as the community feels cheated that their leader was not made the chief minister when he was the face of the 2018 elections. Now, amid speculation that Pilot will launch a new party on June 11, the question becomes even more important. If the community stands with them, the Congress will have to face the loss of these crucial 30 to 35 seats in the upcoming assembly elections.

Next is the Jat community which is again important in Rajasthan. While the Congress has its PCC president Govind Singh Dotasara, a prominent Jat leader, the former BJP president Satish Poonia is a Jat.

While the BJP dropped Poonia, upsetting the Jat community, sources said the Congress may promote Dotasara as deputy CM to woo Jat leaders. The BJP later declared Poonia as the Deputy Leader of the Opposition, given the strong vote base of the Jats.

Speculations are rife on the Meenas, the next important vote bank, whether they will help their powerful leader Kirorilal Meena of the BJP win or in another permutation if the Gujjars and Meenas remain united? All the permutations and combinations are being discussed by the parties to ensure victory in the assembly elections.

Overall, the state has four major communities – Rajputs, Jats, Meenas and Gujjars, who voted in a mixed manner in the 2018 assembly elections, in which the BJP was defeated and the Congress returned to power after five years.