West considers renewed engagement on Iran nuclear crisis

The US and European powers have restarted discussions on how to contain Iran’s nuclear activity, as fears grow that the Islamic republic’s aggressive expansion of its program threatens to trigger a regional war.

The move reflects a shift in Western thinking and underscores concerns about a growing crisis, as Tehran enriches uranium to levels that US officials have warned in recent months that it could run out in less than two weeks. could produce enough material for a nuclear weapon.

A Western diplomat said, “It is a recognition that we need a proactive diplomatic plan to deal with Iran’s nuclear program, not allow it to drift.” “What worries me is that Iran’s decision-making ability is quite chaotic and it could block its way into a war with Israel.”

The US, France, Germany and the UK halted diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in September after Tehran angered Western governments by rejecting a draft resolution to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, sparking anti-government protests. Launched violent crackdown on protesters, sold armed drones to Russia. and detained several European citizens.

But there has been contact with Iranian officials in recent months, including the so-called E3 in Oslo in March – a meeting between officials from France, Germany and the UK and Iran’s nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani.

Diplomats and analysts say US Iran envoy Rob Malley has met several times with Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeed Irani, who was a senior official on the Supreme National Security Council before being posted to New York in September.

Those talks are thought to be the first direct contact between US and Iranian officials since former US President Donald Trump sparked the crisis by withdrawing from the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers in 2018, known by its acronym JCPOA. Is. Trump imposed hundreds of sanctions on the republic, while Iran responded by aggressively ramping up its nuclear activity.

A person close to the administration said the talks focused primarily on the possibility of a prisoner swap with Iran. There are at least three American-Iranian citizens in Tehran.

Tehran last week agreed a prisoner swap with Belgium and separately released two Austrians held in Iran. A successful US prisoner exchange could improve the climate for any nuclear talks.

US President Joe Biden promised to return to the JCPOA and ease sanctions if Tehran came back into compliance with the accord. But recently US officials have said that agreement is “not on the agenda”, indicating that any agreement would be more limited.

Diplomats and analysts say possible options include some form of interim deal, or a de-escalator move by both sides under which Iran lowers its enrichment levels in exchange for some sanctions relief.

Another diplomat briefed on the talks said, “The exchange of prisoners is going to start the talks.” “It is unlikely that there will be a nuclear deal, but there could be some interim thing or freeze.”

A US official said that Washington “has always believed that diplomacy is the best way to ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon”, and added: “But we have nothing to announce”. , and we haven’t taken any options off the table.”

Iran is enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, and in January the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered particles enriched to 84 percent at the Fordo plant, which is nearly weapons grade.

In the weeks that followed, Israeli officials warned the Jewish state that it would do whatever was necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

News agencies this week cited a leaked IAEA report saying the UN watchdog no longer questions the particles found at Fordow. This could ease pressure on Iran ahead of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting next week.

Sanam Vakil, Iran expert at Chatham House, said: “Efforts are being made to revive thinking on the crisis, and this is vitally important because Iran is a nuclear threshold state.” Everyone is just looking for a Band-Aid. “

However, there are doubts about Iran’s seriousness in addressing the nuclear issue and whether Biden would be willing to negotiate a deal as the US prepares for its next election cycle.

Ali Vaiz, an Iran expert at the Crisis Group, said: “E3 is mostly watching Washington to see if the Biden administration makes a decision, but they are disappointed because the US wants to put a lid on it until after the 2024 elections.” Is.” , The primary concern here is the re-election of the President.