Ukraine is currently working for NATO

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The author is former US special envoy to Ukraine and former US ambassador to NATO

Sometimes it is difficult to understand the importance of major global changes while they are happening. Our analyses, instincts, and actions are based on what we already know, not fully appreciating the new environment in which we find ourselves. We focus on the past when we should really be focusing more immediately on the future.

This is perhaps the best explanation of what happened at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, this week. The Alliance did a great job at doing what it already knows how to do. It reiterated its “resolute” commitment to defend every inch of its territory, reaffirmed NATO’s nuclear strategy, adopted defense plans for all areas of the alliance, committed once again that each member state spend GDP on defence. would cost less than 2 percent of the U.S. and addressed a wide range of security challenges.

Finland was welcomed as a new member; Sweden’s ratification process should be completed quickly. NATO members also pledged to strengthen their eastern flank in response to a Russian invasion.

Perhaps the most positive and under-reported development of the past week has been Turkey’s re-engagement with the rest of its allies on some important issues. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan softened his objections to ratification of Swedish NATO membership, spoke in favor of Ukraine’s inclusion, approved further Beraktar drone shipments to Ukraine, and the US on the acquisition of F-16s for Turkey entered into an agreement with. ,

All of these developments reflect a NATO that is more unified and capable of protecting its member states than it has been in years. These are positive results. But as much as members criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and continued to provide Kiev with weapons for its own defense, they did not understand what Moscow’s invasion meant for European security. In fact, it has changed everything.

Until now, NATO could afford to keep its ambitious members in a holding pattern for several years at a time, pushing for reforms and assessing the geopolitical impact of each expansion decision. With Europe relatively at peace, it was safe to assume that the same security tactics used in the past would work in the future.

But under Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has pursued a policy of territorial expansion explicitly aimed at reorganizing the Russian Empire. This sparked a major war in Europe that affected every country on the continent – and many more. The war has already forced millions of Ukrainian refugees into neighboring European countries, caused massive inflation (partly due to energy disruptions), disrupted global food supplies and Black Sea shipping Sanctions policies and the need to support the state of Ukraine have caused further economic chaos. budget, and expanded European defense resources.

If Putin does not lose in Ukraine, the situation will worsen. In his quest to rebuild the empire, he will next turn his attention to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and even Finland – all EU and NATO member states that were formerly part of the Russian Empire, and need to be protected bound to combine. If the war in Ukraine stops, Russia will simply regroup and be ready to attack again. With authoritarian, imperialist Russia, no one is safe in Europe. After all, this is what prompted Finland and Sweden to seek NATO membership last year.

Yet at the summit, NATO made no further assurances than it had said in 2008 when it confirmed that Ukraine would one day become a member. There is no real process to achieve that goal. Indeed, the Vilnius language could be seen as weak, insisting that the invitation would be extended only if “all allies agree” (meaning they do not currently agree), and when “conditions are met”. are” (meaning the conditions are yet to be met). The exact nature of these conditions remains unclear.

This is not just a missed opportunity. It shows a failure to understand that the nature of European security has changed. Ukraine is currently doing NATO’s job for this – fighting to defend the border of an independent Europe. It is more capable militarily than most allies, and is defending the values ​​on which NATO is founded. Russia is attacking Ukraine because it wants to defeat those values: Kiev being trapped in the NATO waiting room is a green signal for Putin to strike again.

On the part of Ukraine, of course, he must first win the war, which he is slowly doing. It should continue to press the case for NATO membership and accelerate EU adoption aquis Required for accession. Ukraine has no future outside these factions.

There is now a fundamental contradiction between NATO’s commitment to the alliance’s security and its refusal to offer Ukraine a clear path to membership. With nuclear-armed, imperial Russia claiming territory from other countries and waging proxy wars across the continent, it is hard to see how NATO can fulfill its mission of protecting Europe without admitting Ukraine as a member. Could , It is a contradiction that urgently needs to be addressed, so that when the allies meet again next year a strong invitation can be made.