Military Briefing: Will the Wagner Rebellion Affect the Ukraine War?

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The aborted rebellion of warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin saves Russia from possible civil war, regime change and the collapse of its war effort – a 1917 revolution scenario laid out by President Vladimir Putin on Saturday morning.

But the drama in Russia still brings benefits and potential gains for Ukraine as it seeks to push Russian forces out of the country’s south and east.

“The morale of Ukrainian soldiers is very strong and we are closely watching this situation in Russia with our popcorn,” Vitaly Markiev, a Ukrainian National Guard officer serving on the front line, told the Financial Times on Saturday.

Prigozhin’s threatened offensive came at an opportune time for Kiev, whose counteroffensive has made only small territorial gains since it began earlier this month. The disappointment on the battlefield has raised concerns about Ukraine’s military’s ability to break through heavily fortified Russian positions.

Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed Putin’s vulnerability and focused attention on the rift with Russia’s military machine and possible betrayal.

Ukrainian officials said the power struggle in Russia had not brought any dramatic changes to the front line, but created opportunities to take advantage of distractions and damage their enemy’s morale.

“We will definitely make the most of it,” said Andrey Chernyak, an official at Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate. “We will use it to our advantage in the political field, the information field, the military field.”

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Kiev’s troops “launched an offensive in several directions at the same time” on Saturday. “Progress is being made in all directions.”

There were also unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops crossed the Antonivsky Bridge near Kherson in southern Ukraine and moved into Russian-held territory on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

A senior EU official said the Russian infighting was “the best counter-attack we can all hope for.” Meanwhile, Ukraine can assess Russia’s broken morale and use it to its advantage.

If Prigozhin had continued his rebellion, it might have forced the Kremlin to divert some of its best troops from the Ukrainian front line to counter Wagner’s battle-hardened fighters. That will no longer be necessary. Prigozhin is being sent into exile in Belarus and his soldiers are returning to their bases.

But what will happen to Wagner is unclear. Those Wagner officers who did not participate in the rebellion would be offered regular military contracts. But many others who rebelled would be banned and may remain loyal to Prigozhin. Putin may find that if Wagner – or other such militias – are still considered a potential threat, he must keep more troops still closer to home.

If Wagner is disbanded it will deprive Russia of its most effective military force in Ukraine. It was Wagner fighters who did most of the heavy fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s only significant territorial gain since July.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrey Zagorodnyuk said, “Wagner was the only successful element of the Russian offensive for a year.” “And its success was very limited and focused on a small town and its tactics were barbaric even to Wagner personnel. But at least he achieved something. The Russian army could not do that.”

Zagorodnyuk said that Wagner’s death and Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus would also stop criticism of corruption, inefficiency and bureaucracy in Russia’s armed forces, reducing the pressure on the military establishment to address its biggest weaknesses.

“Thus the chances of change in the Russian military system are almost non-existent.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Institute for Foreign Policy Research, doubted that sidelining Prigozhin’s military would have much effect. It has already withdrawn from the Ukrainian operations and is an offensive force when the Russian army is now in defensive mode and is performing relatively well. But Moscow could use Wagner’s rebellion to undo future damage.

“We are still waiting for Ukraine to launch its reserves and it could happen this week. The Russian military will almost certainly blame what Wagner did for any loss of territory this week, and it may be a somewhat effective PR line to blame Wagner.

Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s capture of a command center in Rostov-on-Don without apparent resistance from Russian troops or the fact that his forces advanced unhindered several hundred kilometers towards Moscow in just one day, the Russian army Will also raise questions about the cohesion and loyalty of parts of the military.

“This is an army of militias and it is becoming more and more apparent,” said Omar Ashour, a professor of military studies at the Doha Institute. “It makes unity of command very difficult.”

Finally it is likely that this weekend’s turmoil will undermine support for Russia’s war both on the front line and among civilians. Prigozhin, who wielded considerable influence through his Telegram channels, destroyed two of Putin’s narratives with his outburst.

On Friday, he claimed Russia went to war with a lie, directly challenging Putin’s justification of the invasion as a mission to protect Russian-speakers. And on Saturday, he showed that Putin’s grip on power is far more tenuous than anyone anticipated.

“The big consequence is that the image of a stable system no longer exists, even if the coup is not successful,” said Maria Zolkina of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a think-tank in Kiev. “The state’s chaotic response shows the real weakness of an authoritarian system. Putin has become a hostage of his own game.

Additional reporting by Henri Foy in Brussels and Roman Olerchik in Kiev

Get free Ukraine military briefing updates

we will send you one myFT Daily Digest Latest Email Rounding ukraine military briefing News every morning.

The aborted rebellion of warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin saves Russia from possible civil war, regime change and the collapse of its war effort – a 1917 revolution scenario laid out by President Vladimir Putin on Saturday morning.

But the drama in Russia still brings benefits and potential gains for Ukraine as it seeks to push Russian forces out of the country’s south and east.

“The morale of Ukrainian soldiers is very strong and we are closely watching this situation in Russia with our popcorn,” Vitaly Markiev, a Ukrainian National Guard officer serving on the front line, told the Financial Times on Saturday.

Prigozhin’s threatened offensive came at an opportune time for Kiev, whose counteroffensive has made only small territorial gains since it began earlier this month. The disappointment on the battlefield has raised concerns about Ukraine’s military’s ability to break through heavily fortified Russian positions.

Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed Putin’s vulnerability and focused attention on the rift with Russia’s military machine and possible betrayal.

Ukrainian officials said the power struggle in Russia had not brought any dramatic changes to the front line, but created opportunities to take advantage of distractions and damage their enemy’s morale.

“We will definitely make the most of it,” said Andrey Chernyak, an official at Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate. “We will use it to our advantage in the political field, the information field, the military field.”

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Kiev’s troops “launched an offensive in several directions at the same time” on Saturday. “Progress is being made in all directions.”

There were also unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops crossed the Antonivsky Bridge near Kherson in southern Ukraine and moved into Russian-held territory on the left bank of the Dnieper River.

A senior EU official said the Russian infighting was “the best counter-attack we can all hope for.” Meanwhile, Ukraine can assess Russia’s broken morale and use it to its advantage.

If Prigozhin had continued his rebellion, it might have forced the Kremlin to divert some of its best troops from the Ukrainian front line to counter Wagner’s battle-hardened fighters. That will no longer be necessary. Prigozhin is being sent into exile in Belarus and his soldiers are returning to their bases.

But what will happen to Wagner is unclear. Those Wagner officers who did not participate in the rebellion would be offered regular military contracts. But many others who rebelled would be banned and may remain loyal to Prigozhin. Putin may find that if Wagner – or other such militias – are still considered a potential threat, he must keep more troops still closer to home.

If Wagner is disbanded it will deprive Russia of its most effective military force in Ukraine. It was Wagner fighters who did most of the heavy fighting in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s only significant territorial gain since July.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrey Zagorodnyuk said, “Wagner was the only successful element of the Russian offensive for a year.” “And its success was very limited and focused on a small town and its tactics were barbaric even to Wagner personnel. But at least he achieved something. The Russian army could not do that.”

Zagorodnyuk said that Wagner’s death and Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus would also stop criticism of corruption, inefficiency and bureaucracy in Russia’s armed forces, reducing the pressure on the military establishment to address its biggest weaknesses.

“Thus the chances of change in the Russian military system are almost non-existent.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Institute for Foreign Policy Research, doubted that sidelining Prigozhin’s military would have much effect. It has already withdrawn from the Ukrainian operations and is an offensive force when the Russian army is now in defensive mode and is performing relatively well. But Moscow could use Wagner’s rebellion to undo future damage.

“We are still waiting for Ukraine to launch its reserves and it could happen this week. The Russian military will almost certainly blame what Wagner did for any loss of territory this week, and it may be a somewhat effective PR line to blame Wagner.

Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s capture of a command center in Rostov-on-Don without apparent resistance from Russian troops or the fact that his forces advanced unhindered several hundred kilometers towards Moscow in just one day, the Russian army Will also raise questions about the cohesion and loyalty of parts of the military.

“This is an army of militias and it is becoming more and more apparent,” said Omar Ashour, a professor of military studies at the Doha Institute. “It makes unity of command very difficult.”

Finally it is likely that this weekend’s turmoil will undermine support for Russia’s war both on the front line and among civilians. Prigozhin, who wielded considerable influence through his Telegram channels, destroyed two of Putin’s narratives with his outburst.

On Friday, he claimed Russia went to war with a lie, directly challenging Putin’s justification of the invasion as a mission to protect Russian-speakers. And on Saturday, he showed that Putin’s grip on power is far more tenuous than anyone anticipated.

“The big consequence is that the image of a stable system no longer exists, even if the coup is not successful,” said Maria Zolkina of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a think-tank in Kiev. “The state’s chaotic response shows the real weakness of an authoritarian system. Putin has become a hostage of his own game.

Additional reporting by Henri Foy in Brussels and Roman Olerchik in Kiev